Antarctic Black Gold Might Start WW3

You might not have noticed, but the global geopolitical landscape is far from stable at the moment. China seems like it’s ready to invade Taiwan any day now; the Middle East is utter carnage, not only with a potential genocide but a conflict that is spreading, drawing more and more countries into the fray, and Russia continues to push West through Ukraine. Any one of these conflicts could bubble over and start a world war. But, a recent discovery thousands of miles away from these hostilities is arguably far more likely to spark WW3. You see, a Russian “research” vessel recently found a gargantuan oil and gas field in the British Antarctic Territory, equivalent to 511 billion barrels of oil, or 10 times the amount of oil the North Sea has produced over the past 50 years. With Putin’s lust for black gold rising and the West’s appetite for war intensifying, will this discovery set East and West against each other?

Well, just because Russia has discovered these reserves doesn’t mean they are going to drill them. Putin needs some serious motivation to expand the Kremlin’s fossil fuel operations in this incredibly risky manner. After all, many experts worry that Russia taking resources from a Western country’s territory like this is possibly the quickest way to start WW3. But, sadly, Putin has every reason to.

You see, almost all of Russia’s fossil fuel operations are state-owned. As such, between 30% and 50% of the Kremlin’s annual federal revenue comes from oil and gas. These state-owned companies also constitute around 20% of the country’s GDP.

As such, Russia’s oil and gas industries were crucial in bankrolling Putin’s idiotic invasion of Ukraine. The Kremlin has spent well over $100 billion on the invasion so far, which even their vast oil and gas profits couldn’t pay for, leading to the Kremlin liquidating federal reserves to make up the deficit. This led to Russia’s currency, the Rouble, being massively devalued, causing their economy to struggle.

If Putin wants to see his invasion through and not bankrupt the country or disenfranchise the Russian people to the point of rebellion, he needs a massive injection of cash. Oil and gas could easily solve this problem. Putin already has buyers in India and China, so all he needs to do is secure more reserves to sell to them.

As such, not many people actually believed this Russian vessel was doing research in the Antarctic. Klaus Dodds, a professor of geopolitics at Royal Holloway University, said that “Russia’s activities [in the Antarctic] need to be understood as a decision to undermine the norms associated with seismic survey research, and ultimately a precursor for forthcoming resource extraction.”

But Putin will face two enormous roadblocks if he tries to extract this dino-juice.

Firstly, Antarctica is currently protected by the 1959 Antarctic Treaty, of which Russia is a member, which prohibits all oil developments in the area. If any member state breaks the laws set out in the treaty, it risks severe repercussions from other member states, who are legally obligated to levy sanctions and asset freezing against the offending nation. Sadly for Putin, their close economic and political partners China, India, Belarus, Pakistan and Turkey are all members of the treaty. So, extracting this new-found oil could utterly tank the Russian economy. However, it isn’t like Russia isn’t used to pulling out of treaties like this. They recently pulled out of several nuclear weapon treaties to bolster their position against the US.

But the main roadblock is Britain, their navy, their political situation, and their history in the region.

The waters of the British Antarctic Territory lie just south of the Falkland Islands. As such, not only is this oil field technically under British control, but it is also very close to a British military and naval stronghold. Britain is also used to defending this territory from aggressors such as Argentina, who claim the Falklands are theirs. While Britain’s navy is far from the best in the world, it is incredibly effective and used to operating in these waters. What’s more, with internal politics starting to destabilise, British politics is ripe for a war to act as a focal point to distract and align political fractions, just as Tony Blair did with Iraq. Meanwhile, Russia’s navy has never operated so far from its shores, it’s also minuscule in comparison, with far less capability. Moreover, they’re ships that are literally so rusty they are falling apart.

Basically, if Russia does try to use military might to extract this oil, they are set to get utterly squashed by Britain.

So, it seems the chances Putin will start WW3 in the Antarctic are slim. It’s a move that makes no sense logically. But don’t forget, invading Ukraine made no logical sense; it was always going to be an expensive zero-sum game for Russia. Putin is acting irrationally and surrounded by yes men who feed him what he wants to hear, not what he needs to hear. So, considering how desperate Russia is getting, I wouldn’t be surprised if they do try it on. But will this blow up into a world war? Or will Britain simply stomp them out before it becomes an issue? After all, Russia is no longer the mighty threat it used to be.

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(Originally published on PlanetEarthAndBeyond.co)

Sources: The Telegraph, City AM, RAND, OIES, Reuters, Bloomberg